Why your TAM is wrong?

Stop lying about your market size. (Yes, I'm talking to you)

The hard truth:

99% of TAM slides are fantasy.

Here's why:

1. The Top-Down Trap:

"Global healthcare is $8T"

"EdTech is $250B"

"FinTech is $4.7T" = Meaningless numbers

Reality: Your actual market is tiny.

2. What VCs Actually Think:

- Your TAM slide = Skip

- Your SAM numbers = Fiction

- Your SOM dreams = Eyeroll

3. The Real Way = Bottom-up only

Current price x Realistic customers x Actual usage = Real market size

4. Signs Your TAM is Wrong:

- Includes China/India markets

- Uses "if we just get 1%..."

- Cites Gartner/McKinsey

- Shows trillion-dollar numbers

The Truth:

Small TAM + High penetration > Huge TAM + No penetration

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